flydubai, October 7 and the Warnings Israel Ignored

Over Yossi Alpher's desk hangs a parchment the Mossad gave him, quoting Ezekiel: if the watchman sees the sword coming and doesn't blow the trumpet, he answers for the blood.

Why do surprise attacks succeed when the warnings are already there? Daniella and Yossi Alpher trace the pattern from Pearl Harbor and 9/11 to October 7 and the flydubai co-pilot who attacked his captain on the way to Tel Aviv, one of the many foreign pilots Israel wasn't vetting. Golda Meir acknowledged King Hussein's warning before the 1973 Yom Kippur War; Netanyahu says he was never warned about October 7. Yossi, who worked on early warning in the Mossad, explains why 99 percent of what reaches an analyst is noise and how the belief that Qatari money had bought off Hamas drowned out the signal.